The Sustainable Energy Turbomachinery Infrastructure Dilemma

UncategorizedThe Sustainable Energy Turbomachinery Infrastructure Dilemma
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The Sustainable Energy Turbomachinery Infrastructure Dilemma

The global energy supply is gradually shifting from a heavy reliance on fossil fuels to a mix of non-carbon-emitting sources, such as renewables and nuclear power. In most countries, the public demands that energy be reliable, affordable, and clean. 

The U.S. Energy Administration forecasts that by 2050, about one-third of the world’s primary energy will come from wind, solar, and hydropower, while the remainder will still largely consist of fossil fuels (see Figure 1). To achieve net-zero decarbonization and mitigate potential climate change, it’s not enough to simply expand carbon-free energy sources; we must also decarbonize the existing fossil fuel infrastructure through carbon capture and sequestration. This transition must be managed while minimizing socio-economic, safety, and environmental impacts.

Figure 1: Global Primary Energy Consumption Forecast (source US Energy Information Administration)

The transition from a fossil-fuel-based energy economy to a sustainable one presents significant infrastructure challenges. Much of the current infrastructure for energy production, transport, storage, and distribution cannot be easily adapted to the new value chain of liquids and gases, and will need to be replaced. Traditional hydrocarbon fluids like crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas are set to be replaced by hydrogen, ammonia, and even carbon dioxide, which will form the backbone of the new energy system for transport, utilization, and decarbonization toward a net-zero economy.

During this lengthy transition, the energy industry must continue handling existing hydrocarbons while developing technologies to process decarbonized fluids. Four key fluids are critical in the energy shift toward net-zero: (i) natural gas as a short-term, low-carbon transition fuel, (ii) carbon dioxide captured for sequestration from fossil fuel power plants, (iii) ammonia as a diesel substitute for marine and terrestrial transport, and (iv) hydrogen as a zero-carbon secondary energy carrier and chemical storage medium.

While many countries and corporations aim to be fully decarbonized by 2050, this goal is likely unrealistic given the scale of changes needed throughout the energy value chain. A more plausible transition period of 30-50 years is realistic and can be expected. Turbomachinery, such as compressors, pumps, and expanders, play a crucial role in the infrastructure and must be adapted or replaced to meet evolving demands of this new sustainable energy market. In the near term, the turbomachinery industry is facing increased demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to geopolitical instability. LNG, with its low carbon-to-hydrogen ratio, is also seen as a cost-effective transition fuel. For every 1,000 horsepower of compression required in an LNG plant, approximately 10,000 horsepower is needed along the natural gas supply chain, causing short-term demand for turbomachinery to exceed global manufacturing capacity.

In the mid-term, fossil fuel power plants will continue to produce carbon dioxide, which must be captured and sequestered. Currently, about 80% of the world’s primary energy comes from fossil fuels, and it is unlikely that non-carbon energy sources like wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, and wave power can fully replace this. Therefore, CO2 must be captured using pre- or post-combustion separation processes and transported to storage for long-term sequestration. While viable technologies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) exist and have been demonstrated, the necessary infrastructure—compression stations, pipelines, and injection sites—is expensive and still needs to be built. This poses a dilemma for technology providers, particularly turbomachinery manufacturers, as they must invest in developing new technologies with a relatively short commercial window of 20-30 years before non-fossil energy sources dominate. Fortunately, many CCS-related machinery technologies already exist or can be adapted from other applications, reducing the financial risk.

Ammonia, widely regarded as a viable carbon-free energy carrier for hydrogen and a potential diesel replacement for marine and land transport, faces similar challenges. The technology for ammonia production, compression, and pumping already exists due to its widespread use in the fertilizer industry. While there are safety risks associated with ammonia handling and storage, these are well understood and can be managed based on industrial experience.
However, handling hydrogen, the fourth critical fluid of the net-zero transition, is significantly more complex than dealing with natural gas, carbon dioxide, or ammonia. As global energy demand shifts toward carbon-free sources, electrification will increase, but hydrogen will also play a key role in industries where electrification isn’t viable—such as chemical, petrochemical, cement, and heavy industrial processes. Blue hydrogen, due to its economic advantage over green hydrogen, is expected to be the main transition fuel in the near term. Currently, blue hydrogen is 3-5 times less expensive than green hydrogen, even accounting for carbon capture costs, and this cost gap is expected to persist for the next 10-20 years until advances in electrolysis make green hydrogen more competitive.

Blue hydrogen isn’t truly “green” because its production relies on fossil fuels. Basic chemical stoichiometry shows that at least 6 kilograms of CO2 is produced for every kilogram of hydrogen from natural gas (NG).  In reality, the actual figure is closer to 20 kilograms of CO2 per kilogram of hydrogen due to energy requirements and losses in the NG supply chain.

Figure 2: Cost of Hydrogen Production (source International Council of Clean Transportation)

This number increases 2-3 times when hydrogen is produced from coal. A fuel that generates 20 times its own mass in CO2 cannot be considered green, especially when produced on an industrial scale.

Infrastructure needs for blue hydrogen are relatively limited, as natural gas or coal can be transported using existing pipelines, rail, barges, or trucks. Developing a dedicated hydrogen transport network for blue hydrogen makes little sense given that the fuel source is already efficiently transported. However, green hydrogen, which serves as an energy carrier, will likely be produced near wind and solar plants, requiring a new network of hydrogen transport pipelines. Unless green hydrogen is produced solely to avoid energy curtailment, it’s inefficient to incur the power losses associated with transporting electricity over the grid before producing hydrogen through electrolysis. Additionally, blending hydrogen into the existing NG pipeline network isn’t a viable large-scale solution due to safety concerns. Most of the current NG infrastructure isn’t equipped to handle any significant percentage of hydrogen safely, particularly for domestic and small industrial users.

In summary, hydrogen from green sources is expensive and will require new pipelines and compression infrastructure, while blue hydrogen, though not truly green, will require new CO2 transport and sequestration infrastructure.

These changes present significant challenges for turbomachinery manufacturers, who must invest in new technology without certainty about which solutions will be required. While the transition to sustainable energy sources offers many opportunities for turbomachinery—such as rotating equipment for wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, and nuclear plants, or compressors and pumps for carbon capture and direct air capture—uncertainties remain. Hydrogen and ammonia will need to be transported through new pipelines, and intermittent energy sources require mechanical and thermal storage. Heat pumps and other systems will be essential for reducing energy consumption and improving industrial efficiency. All these scenarios demand innovative turbomachinery solutions, which in turn require significant R&D funding, new fabrication and testing facilities, and robust service and supply chains.

From an R&D and engineering standpoint, these product challenges are manageable, though they require new machines and cycles for handling complex fluids like carbon dioxide, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, ethanol, and dimethyl ether. The main technical difficulty lies in the lack of test data, complex processes, and evolving specifications, codes, and standards. However, these are issues that most manufacturers’ product development teams know how to address. The more daunting challenge is the limited production capacity and supply chain uncertainty of all global turbomachinery manufacturers. High costs, lengthy design times, and the need for new facilities discourage rapid investment in the new technologies required for sustainability products.

Figure 3: Novel Compressor and Pump Products for Sustainable Energy (source Ebara Elliott Energy)

The global push for sustainable energy presents a risky transition for manufacturers, as many of these emerging markets are still speculative and uncertain, with some being more vision than reality. The total global manufacturing capacity for large industrial barrel-style centrifugal compressors is currently around 500-600 units per year. Nearly all are purchased by traditional oil and gas companies, with lead times often exceeding 24 months. There is little spare capacity in the turbomachinery supply chain, and given the historically cyclical demand, manufacturers are hesitant to significantly increase turbomachinery production capacity.

However, if some projections for CO2 capture and hydrogen demand prove accurate, turbomachinery manufacturers will need to drastically adjust their internal supply chains to meet the growing demand for these machines. Unfortunately, these compressors are fundamentally different from those used in hydrocarbon processing, requiring new manufacturing processes, testing facilities, and service networks. In the mean-time, the demand for conventional turbomachinery for oil & gas applications is still growing because of increasing energy demand from developing countries. Thus, turbomachinery manufacturers are unlikely to risk their financial future on uncertain forecasts for the sustainable energy transition without clear, present demand for these products and while their traditional hydrocarbon markets are still solid.

Most manufacturers will likely adopt a gradual approach for sustainable energy product development, adjusting their technology, manufacturing, and service capabilities based on actual market demand rather than over-optimistic projections.

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